European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo Delivered: Clean Takeout, No Leftovers

Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

Prosus/Just Eat Takeaway: A Strategic Takeover in the Food Delivery Sector

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo