Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Bullish forecasts rely on an absence of permanent damage from lockdown or change. Most damage tends to come through productivity, despite support from creative destruction, which anyway hasn’t happened yet.</li>
<li>Recessions require resources to reallocate and that process leaves some underutilised and misallocated. The cost consistently appears across countries and time as downwards breaks in the level of the productivity trend: the dynamics of metastable equilibrium.</li>
<li>We expect the recent economic experience around covid to require shifts in resources and another break in the productivity trend. That may vary with the length and extent of past restrictions. Recoveries remain likely to disappoint, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Bullish forecasts rely on an absence of permanent damage from lockdown or change. Most damage tends to come through productivity, despite support from creative destruction, which anyway hasn’t happened yet.
Recessions require resources to reallocate and that process leaves some underutilised and misallocated. The cost consistently appears across countries and time as downwards breaks in the level of the productivity trend: the dynamics of metastable equilibrium.
We expect the recent economic experience around covid to require shifts in resources and another break in the productivity trend. That may vary with the length and extent of past restrictions. Recoveries remain likely to disappoint, in our view.


Productivity Trends Damaged by Breaks