Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

Elliot Wave Calms on SGX IODEX: Monetizing the Iron Ore Curve Amidst Middle East Shipping Frictions

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Construction materials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Beijing’s latest property easing reduces downside risk, but weak construction activity suggests limited immediate impact on China’s physical steel and iron-ore demand.</li>
<li>Cement and steel output remain weak despite stronger iron-ore imports, unlike the synchronised construction and commodity recovery seen during the 2020–21 cycle.</li>
<li>With global steel demand barely growing and new seaborne supply emerging, upside remains constrained, although subdued expectations could amplify a re-rating if inventories fall and steel margins recover.</li>
</ul>


Beijing’s latest property easing reduces downside risk, but weak construction activity suggests limited immediate impact on China’s physical steel and iron-ore demand.
Cement and steel output remain weak despite stronger iron-ore imports, unlike the synchronised construction and commodity recovery seen during the 2020–21 cycle.
With global steel demand barely growing and new seaborne supply emerging, upside remains constrained, although subdued expectations could amplify a re-rating if inventories fall and steel margins recover.


Property Easing Improves the Tail Risk, but an Iron-Ore Rally Remains Unwarranted