High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas.

I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements.

As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.</li><li>Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.</li><li>Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.</li></ul>

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.

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