Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

FX Dashboard: Is It Time for Latin American Currencies to Turn Around?

FX Dashboard: Spillover Risk from China to EM FX

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Curve Starts Pricing in Rate Hikes

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 2y Vs Pay Poland 2y Rates

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Volatility as High as the US in a Rare Occurrence

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap (May 2021)

FX & Rates

<p>Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

PLN 2Y

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors