Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Asian Trade & Currency Appreciation - Well Positioned

Cafe De Coral - Tough Time Ahead as Upside Is Limited

Asia 2018 Policy Rate Outlook - Bumps & Boosts

Asean Growth – Investment Cycles and Lending Rates

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>The source of the global recovery in 2017 was an upturn in the profit cycle. With monetary and exchange rate policies in the major economies now more stable we expect this to continue in 2018 and beyond. Along with profits,  an appropriate real lending rate is a necessary condition for full economic recovery. Real lending rates play a key signaling role in transforming profits into increased investment spending, the critical stage in the renewed boom. At a later stage in the cycle increased demand for credit may well kick in to take the cycle to its peak (followed by the inevitable bust).</p><p>There is nothing to stop the profit and investment cycles from driving economic growth for most of Asia in the coming year. We particularly like China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.</p>

The source of the global recovery in 2017 was an upturn in the profit cycle. With monetary and exchange rate policies in the major economies now more stable we expect this to continue in 2018 and beyond. Along with profits,  an appropriate real lending rate is a necessary condition for full economic recovery. Real lending rates play a key signaling role in transforming profits into increased investment spending, the critical stage in the renewed boom. At a later stage in the cycle increased demand for credit may well kick in to take the cycle to its peak (followed by the inevitable bust).There is nothing to stop the profit and investment cycles from driving economic growth for most of Asia in the coming year. We particularly like China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

Multiple Countries

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle