Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Still Bullish. Buys: ALB, ATI ++

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples