bearish
Rebound Renews Policy Pressure
253 Views22 Feb 2023 02:07
Phil has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
SUMMARY
- The Flash PMIs rebounded further away from recessionary levels in Feb-23. The resilient output is a tailwind to employment, excess inflation, and above-neutral rates.
- Falling forward rates have proved premature, but their partial reversal has not yet broken bullish spirits. Expectations are too high, especially in the UK.
- Low official inflation forecasts are conditional on conquering the inflation issue. More aggressive steps are needed to avoid defeat and its persistently high pressures.
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Discussions
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