New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect an improvement in real retail spend in 2026 albeit at a more modest level than some investors may be expecting.</li><li>We forecast +1% to +2% annual growth in real core retail spend in the 12 months to June 2026, with further potential upside constrained by a soft labour market, weak net migration, and a subdued wealth effect.</li><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) and Briscoes Group (BGP) have most to benefit from an improving NZ consumer spending backdrop.</li></ul>

We expect an improvement in real retail spend in 2026 albeit at a more modest level than some investors may be expecting.We forecast +1% to +2% annual growth in real core retail spend in the 12 months to June 2026, with further potential upside constrained by a soft labour market, weak net migration, and a subdued wealth effect.The Warehouse Group (WHS) and Briscoes Group (BGP) have most to benefit from an improving NZ consumer spending backdrop.

Retail Rundown What’s In Store For 2026