European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>RHIM’s 549p proposal leaves a 17.6% spread despite a year of negotiations, completed due diligence and Cevian’s 23% irrevocable support.</li>
<li>We estimate £50–70m of run-rate synergies, but pro-forma leverage could exceed 4x EBITDA, limiting scope for a materially higher offer.</li>
<li>Antitrust and an illiquid RHIM equity component justify a discount, but we think 17.6% is too wide and would buy Vesuvius at 467p.</li>
</ul>


RHIM’s 549p proposal leaves a 17.6% spread despite a year of negotiations, completed due diligence and Cevian’s 23% irrevocable support.
We estimate £50–70m of run-rate synergies, but pro-forma leverage could exceed 4x EBITDA, limiting scope for a materially higher offer.
Antitrust and an illiquid RHIM equity component justify a discount, but we think 17.6% is too wide and would buy Vesuvius at 467p.


RHI Magnesita/Vesuvius: A 17.6% Spread Worth the Heat