Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>The reorg will see H1/25 Minerals revenue decline to zero as items are reclassified to Iron Ore and Aluminum/Lithium and Iron/Titanium and Borates are under review      </li>
<li>Guidance for 2026 indicates a 4.3% and 2.6% yoy increase in iron ore and alumina output, respectively, but a -2.5% and -3.7% decline in bauxite and copper production</li>
<li>Rio appears near fully valued, with -3.9% downside to our DCF and 4.5% upside to the consensus target, and we still see downside risk for iron ore and copper prices </li>
</ul>


The reorg will see H1/25 Minerals revenue decline to zero as items are reclassified to Iron Ore and Aluminum/Lithium and Iron/Titanium and Borates are under review      
Guidance for 2026 indicates a 4.3% and 2.6% yoy increase in iron ore and alumina output, respectively, but a -2.5% and -3.7% decline in bauxite and copper production
Rio appears near fully valued, with -3.9% downside to our DCF and 4.5% upside to the consensus target, and we still see downside risk for iron ore and copper prices 


Rio Tinto Ltd

Rio Tinto: Reorg Detail, New Guidance