Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal </li>
<li>Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside</li>
</ul>


Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal 
Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus
Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside


Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations

Rio Tinto Ltd

Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations