Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Seiko has tripled YTD as Grand Seiko accelerates and the yen weakened, but USDJPY has fallen to 153.7 from 164 — reversing the currency tailwind.</li>
<li>At 27.7x guidance EPS, Seiko faces multiple risk rather than earnings collapse; Citizen carries greater FX sensitivity but its ¥199/share net cash provides a floor.</li>
<li>We rate Seiko SELL, FV ¥6,400 based on 20x FY3/27E stressed EPS of ¥319; Citizen is REDUCE at ¥1,940 on 17x stressed EPS.</li>
</ul>


Seiko has tripled YTD as Grand Seiko accelerates and the yen weakened, but USDJPY has fallen to 153.7 from 164 — reversing the currency tailwind.
At 27.7x guidance EPS, Seiko faces multiple risk rather than earnings collapse; Citizen carries greater FX sensitivity but its ¥199/share net cash provides a floor.
We rate Seiko SELL, FV ¥6,400 based on 20x FY3/27E stressed EPS of ¥319; Citizen is REDUCE at ¥1,940 on 17x stressed EPS.


Seiko (8050 JP) & Citizen (7762 JP): The Yen Trade Reverses — Sell Seiko, Reduce Citizen

Seiko Holdings

Seiko (8050 JP) & Citizen (7762 JP): The Yen Trade Reverses — Sell Seiko, Reduce Citizen