Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Michael Allen is a representative director of Azabu Research, an independent research company focused on turnaround situations in the Japanese stock market. He has covered Japanese stocks for more than 30 years in both sell-side and buy-side roles and is fluent in both written and spoken Japanese.  He holds a degree in international studies from the University of Pacific, and certificates in corporate governance from both the Board Director Training Institute of Japan and the Wharton School of Business.

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market.</li>
<li>Near-Term earnings are depressed by investment, hiring normalization, consolidation noise, and possible Rise impairment; none changes cash flow, long-run unit economics, or the path to 24% EBITDA CAGR.</li>
<li>At 9x EV/EBITDA and ~12x FY8/27 EPS, the stock discounts execution failure and permanent impairment; if conversion works even modestly, the current multiple is mispriced.</li>
</ul>


The market sees testing as AI’s first casualty, but SHIFT is building an AI-powered Trojan horse into Japan’s ¥56tn modernization market.
Near-Term earnings are depressed by investment, hiring normalization, consolidation noise, and possible Rise impairment; none changes cash flow, long-run unit economics, or the path to 24% EBITDA CAGR.
At 9x EV/EBITDA and ~12x FY8/27 EPS, the stock discounts execution failure and permanent impairment; if conversion works even modestly, the current multiple is mispriced.


Shift (3697): An AI Strategy Just Crazy Enough to Work

Shift Inc

Shift (3697): An AI Strategy Just Crazy Enough to Work