Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Kazakhstan Construction and engineering / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The market values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-shougang-lanzatech-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55324:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Shougang Lanzatech Technology (2553 HK)</a> primarily as a low-carbon ethanol producer, underestimating its transition toward an industrial carbon-conversion platform driven by technology, engineering and licensing.</li>
<li>Four commercial plants have proven gas fermentation at industrial scale. Near-term losses keep focus on whether technology licensing and integrated solutions can deliver recurring, higher-quality earnings beyond manufacturing.</li>
<li>We remain constructive. Our bear, base and bull cases imply valuations of HK$20–22, HK$30–33 and HK$40+, respectively, depending on utilisation, technology licensing and integrated solutions becoming meaningful earnings drivers.</li>
</ul>


The market values Beijing Shougang Lanzatech Technology (2553 HK) primarily as a low-carbon ethanol producer, underestimating its transition toward an industrial carbon-conversion platform driven by technology, engineering and licensing.
Four commercial plants have proven gas fermentation at industrial scale. Near-term losses keep focus on whether technology licensing and integrated solutions can deliver recurring, higher-quality earnings beyond manufacturing.
We remain constructive. Our bear, base and bull cases imply valuations of HK$20–22, HK$30–33 and HK$40+, respectively, depending on utilisation, technology licensing and integrated solutions becoming meaningful earnings drivers.


Beijing Shougang Lanzatech Technology (2553 HK)

Shougang LanzaTech: Beyond Ethanol Toward Industrial Process Technology