Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Siltronic Q1'23 Revenue €404.4 Million, -14.3% QoQ And -3% YoY. Q2'23 Flat QoQ

Globalwafers Q1'23 Revenues up 1% QoQ, 14.2% YoY

Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FabNext is €2bn of genuine, well-built 300mm capacity that generates more depreciation than EBITDA through 2027 — holding EBIT negative and return on capital below zero.</li>
<li>The cheapest EV/EBITDA multiple in the peer group reflects the only negative ROIC in the peer group — cheapness that accurately prices the return is not an opportunity.</li>
<li>Initiating BEARISH, fair value €76 (7.0x FY2027E EBITDA of €435m); one event overrides the call — a disclosed tier-one leading-edge qualification at FabNext moves fair value above €105 immediately.</li>
</ul>


FabNext is €2bn of genuine, well-built 300mm capacity that generates more depreciation than EBITDA through 2027 — holding EBIT negative and return on capital below zero.
The cheapest EV/EBITDA multiple in the peer group reflects the only negative ROIC in the peer group — cheapness that accurately prices the return is not an opportunity.
Initiating BEARISH, fair value €76 (7.0x FY2027E EBITDA of €435m); one event overrides the call — a disclosed tier-one leading-edge qualification at FabNext moves fair value above €105 immediately.


Siltronic (WAF GY): FabNext Is Real. The Return Is Not. Initiating BEARISH

Siltronic AG

Siltronic (WAF GY): FabNext Is Real. The Return Is Not. Initiating BEARISH