Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

J. Brian Waterhouse has been covering the Japanese financial sector as an analyst continuously since 1976, working for CLSA, Japaninvest, Rabobank, HSBC Securities, James Capel, Marine Midland Bank of New York and National & Grindlays Bank.  He has been ranked No.1 overall in Japanese banks research in Japan by Asiamoney for 6 of the past 9 years and was runner-up in 2015.  He was awarded the coveted Starmine prize as top Japanese bank stock picker in 2012 and 2014 and was runner-up in 2013.  He frequently appears on TV, radio and in international print media as a commentator on Japanese banking.

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

MUFG (8306 JP) - BigBank BigBuyback But A Bit Pricey Vs SMFG

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group - Best House In a Bad Neighborhood

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Interim FY3/2021 results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a>  showed a strong recovery in 2Q after a disappointing and COVID-19-affected 1Q, although margins remained under pressure and credit costs leaped to around 48bps.  Consolidated net profits of ¥270.13 billion represented 68% of SMFG’s FY3/2021 net profit target of ¥400.0 billion.  Although SMBC registered a decline in net income, there were good performances from other group members such as SMBC Nikko and consumer finance arm SMBCCF.SMFG has kept its very conservative full-year guidance for consolidated net profits unchanged at ¥400.0 billion, representing a 43.2% YoY decline and is maintaining its full-year dividend at ¥190/share, suggesting a 65% dividend payout ratio.  An upward revision to profits later in the year cannot be entirely ruled out, initially lowballing earnings capability being almost standard SMFG management procedure, judging from previous years.While buying megabank shares is always a crowded trade at the best of times and there often seems to be little difference in share price performance between SMFG and mega-rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>, on balance we prefer SMFG for the group’s tighter discipline and more stable profits, regular share buy-backs and dividend growth ‘track record’, having almost doubled the per-share dividend over the last eight years.

Interim FY3/2021 results for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)  showed a strong recovery in 2Q after a disappointing and COVID-19-affected 1Q, although margins remained under pressure and credit costs leaped to around 48bps.  Consolidated net profits of ¥270.13 billion represented 68% of SMFG’s FY3/2021 net profit target of ¥400.0 billion.  Although SMBC registered a decline in net income, there were good performances from other group members such as SMBC Nikko and consumer finance arm SMBCCF.SMFG has kept its very conservative full-year guidance for consolidated net profits unchanged at ¥400.0 billion, representing a 43.2% YoY decline and is maintaining its full-year dividend at ¥190/share, suggesting a 65% dividend payout ratio.  An upward revision to profits later in the year cannot be entirely ruled out, initially lowballing earnings capability being almost standard SMFG management procedure, judging from previous years.While buying megabank shares is always a crowded trade at the best of times and there often seems to be little difference in share price performance between SMFG and mega-rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP), on balance we prefer SMFG for the group’s tighter discipline and more stable profits, regular share buy-backs and dividend growth ‘track record’, having almost doubled the per-share dividend over the last eight years.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

SMFG (8316 JP):  Rising to the Challenge