TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

Snowflake 4Q21 Earnings: Their Revenues ARE Worth More Than Yours

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day