Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

SpaceX (SPCX US): Comprehensive IPO Valuation — Fair Value US$54.5/Share; AVOID the IPO at US$135

SpaceX (SPCX US): Fast-Entry & Upweights Xpected Into US & Global Indices

MUSK OPTIONALITY PREMIUM: Anatomy of Valuation Disconnect — TSLA as Precedent, SPCX as Consequence

SpaceX (SPCX US) Goes Public: Unassailable Moat, Unanswerable Valuation

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>Our bottom-up, cradle-to-grave unit model finds orbital AI compute is not economically viable — base-case IRR is −51%, with the sensitivity surface entirely loss-making.</li>
<li>The constraints that break the model: GPU obsolescence at ~3 years while the satellite bus lasts 5–7 years; and cooling consumes ~26% of satellite mass with no in-orbit refresh possible.</li>
<li>Analysis validates our fair value of US$1.16–1.60tn (US$88.3/share low end); orbital AI is worth less than US$10bn on a probability-weighted basis. Maintain AVOID the IPO.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom-up, cradle-to-grave unit model finds orbital AI compute is not economically viable — base-case IRR is −51%, with the sensitivity surface entirely loss-making.
The constraints that break the model: GPU obsolescence at ~3 years while the satellite bus lasts 5–7 years; and cooling consumes ~26% of satellite mass with no in-orbit refresh possible.
Analysis validates our fair value of US$1.16–1.60tn (US$88.3/share low end); orbital AI is worth less than US$10bn on a probability-weighted basis. Maintain AVOID the IPO.


SpaceX (SPCX US): Starship Orbital AI Feasibility Analysis, Destroys Value & Supports Our AVOID Call