New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Datamine's March 2026 quarter Telcowatch data showed continued market share losses for Spark NZ (SPK) in its core mobile market.</li><li>We expect SPK's total mobile connections to decline ~-2% in FY26 and, taken together, these signals increase our confidence that EBITDAI will marginally fall in FY27 versus FY26.</li><li>We leave our below consensus earnings forecasts unchanged (~-2% below consensus EBITDAI in FY27/FY28) but retain NEUTRAL on valuation grounds, with SPK trading on a ~10% gross yield.</li></ul>

Datamine's March 2026 quarter Telcowatch data showed continued market share losses for Spark NZ (SPK) in its core mobile market.We expect SPK's total mobile connections to decline ~-2% in FY26 and, taken together, these signals increase our confidence that EBITDAI will marginally fall in FY27 versus FY26.We leave our below consensus earnings forecasts unchanged (~-2% below consensus EBITDAI in FY27/FY28) but retain NEUTRAL on valuation grounds, with SPK trading on a ~10% gross yield.

Spark New Zealand

Spark NZ Mobile Signal Fading