Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

ASML: Overall on Track to Achieve 2025 Guidance. The Stock Has Corrected but Isn’t that Cheap

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?</li>
<li>2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. </li>
<li>ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA</li>
</ul>


AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?
2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. 
ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA


Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

ASML Holding NV

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA