European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Spire Healthcare: 250p, This Time With a Deal

Spire Healthcare: Strategic Review Turns Live — Valuation Gap Vs Precedent Is Wide

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toscafund’s 250p proposal values Spire at only ~8.0x NTM EBITDA, materially below prior healthcare take-private precedent despite a 66% premium to the unaffected share price.</li>
<li>Shares trading around 222p, implying a 12.6% gross spread and ~61% market-implied completion probability, relatively low for a board-supported proposal emerging from a formal strategic review.</li>
<li>The same 250p/share price rejected in 2021 is now potentially acceptable, highlighting the derating of UK healthcare assets amid higher rates and weaker sponsor appetite.</li>
</ul>


Toscafund’s 250p proposal values Spire at only ~8.0x NTM EBITDA, materially below prior healthcare take-private precedent despite a 66% premium to the unaffected share price.
Shares trading around 222p, implying a 12.6% gross spread and ~61% market-implied completion probability, relatively low for a board-supported proposal emerging from a formal strategic review.
The same 250p/share price rejected in 2021 is now potentially acceptable, highlighting the derating of UK healthcare assets amid higher rates and weaker sponsor appetite.


Spire Heathcare: Spire Healthcare: Healthy Premium, Sick Multiple