TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT Earnings Quick Hits: Spotify and ServiceNow

Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

Observability: ServiceNow Acquisition Threatens Dynatrace and Elastic

Spotify 1Q21 Earnings: What Is an Audio Platform Worth? 2-3x Sales?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spotify disclosed podcasting is a €200M business with -57% gross margins currently, but will go breakeven in 1-2 years, and become GM accretive in 3-5 years.</li>
<li>Spotify put forth outlandish LT targets: 1B MAUs (vs. 422M today), €100B in revenues (vs. $10B today), of which € 10B will be advertising revenue (vs. € 1.2B today).</li>
<li>To hit these targets requires believing in fanciful TAM forecasts, market share, and margins.</li>
</ul>


Spotify disclosed podcasting is a €200M business with -57% gross margins currently, but will go breakeven in 1-2 years, and become GM accretive in 3-5 years.
Spotify put forth outlandish LT targets: 1B MAUs (vs. 422M today), €100B in revenues (vs. $10B today), of which € 10B will be advertising revenue (vs. € 1.2B today).
To hit these targets requires believing in fanciful TAM forecasts, market share, and margins.


Spotify Analyst Day: We’re Going to Be Huge and Profitable in 10 Years