Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

451 Views23 Jun 2025 18:30

SUMMARY

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.
Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.
Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.

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