Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Global Economics: Bill From Hormuz Crisis Is Already Due and May Grow Larger

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: It's Getting Worse, Not Better — And That "Deal" Smells Funny

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Laos Oil, gas and consumable fuels / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hormuz transits collapse to 18 in Week 19 — down 55% WoW, only 8 AIS-traceable. US blockade is working; Iran-linked traffic at 7 vessels, from ~80 pre-blockade.</li>
<li>Shadow fleet reversal confirms blockade efficacy. Mainstream tonnage now dominates a shrinking transit pool as sanction-tolerant operators stand down. MEG tanker earnings risk is underpriced.</li>
<li>No resolution in sight — base case is extended partial closure. Tanker owners repositioning for long-term disruption. Relief rallies remain sell signals; re-enter only on verified operational reopening.</li>
</ul>


Hormuz transits collapse to 18 in Week 19 — down 55% WoW, only 8 AIS-traceable. US blockade is working; Iran-linked traffic at 7 vessels, from ~80 pre-blockade.
Shadow fleet reversal confirms blockade efficacy. Mainstream tonnage now dominates a shrinking transit pool as sanction-tolerant operators stand down. MEG tanker earnings risk is underpriced.
No resolution in sight — base case is extended partial closure. Tanker owners repositioning for long-term disruption. Relief rallies remain sell signals; re-enter only on verified operational reopening.


Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Week 19: Traffic Collapses to a Trickle as the Blockade Bites