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Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>While there is some anticipation over the full model change for the Forester which is expected to launch in the US around Oct, the overall momentum for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a>'s sales has clearly flagged. We previously highlighted that Subaru's sales trend had broken its upward trend at the beginning of FY03/18 and the latest quarter (-17.0% YoY and -15.6% QoQ) has brought that problem emphatically to light. The 28.6% YoY drop in domestic volumes was not pretty, but the real concern is the 13.9%…</p>

While there is some anticipation over the full model change for the Forester which is expected to launch in the US around Oct, the overall momentum for Subaru Corp (7270 JP)'s sales has clearly flagged. We previously highlighted that Subaru's sales trend had broken its upward trend at the beginning of FY03/18 and the latest quarter (-17.0% YoY and -15.6% QoQ) has brought that problem emphatically to light. The 28.6% YoY drop in domestic volumes was not pretty, but the real concern is the 13.9%…

Subaru: Margin Erosion Progressing Faster than We Expected, 1Q Sales Drop Surprisingly Large