Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP): Recovery Driven by Resources

Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Strategic Reset Amid Downstream Challenges and Valuation Discount

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings re-based higher: FY2025–27 EPS upgraded ~20%, driven by copper and gold prices; resource earnings dominate while smelting volatility remains largely accounting-driven.</li>
<li>Valuation near fair value: At ~¥6,000, SMM trades around mid-cycle value; upside depends on sustained copper/gold strength rather than multiple expansion.</li>
<li>Downside cushioned: Strong balance sheet and ~2× FCF dividend cover limit downside, with pullbacks offering better entry than chasing spot-driven rallies.</li>
</ul>


Earnings re-based higher: FY2025–27 EPS upgraded ~20%, driven by copper and gold prices; resource earnings dominate while smelting volatility remains largely accounting-driven.
Valuation near fair value: At ~¥6,000, SMM trades around mid-cycle value; upside depends on sustained copper/gold strength rather than multiple expansion.
Downside cushioned: Strong balance sheet and ~2× FCF dividend cover limit downside, with pullbacks offering better entry than chasing spot-driven rallies.


Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Resources Anchor Earnings; Upside Linked to Copper & Gold