Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

Initiating Coverage on SUZANO: Headline Risk Limits Upside Potential

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

Pemex: Lack of Concrete Action Weights on the Outperform Thesis

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
<li>Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations</li>
<li>From a credit perspective. Suzano's results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.</li>
</ul>


We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
From a credit perspective. Suzano's results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.


Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen