TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Netflix 2Q22: Low Growth, Low FCF, Low (Management) Conviction

TMT Quick Hits: Palo Alto Networks, Farfetch, Netflix

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Netflix net add bogey appears to be for 2Q losses in the -2-3M range (guide was -2M), if it hits this number is irrelevant, the 3Q/2H22 guide is more important.</li>
<li>BBG was bullish on NFLX's quarter recently, but we think misses the forest from the trees regarding ever ramping competition. </li>
<li>Ad-Based Netflix subs *might* hit by end of 2022, but won't move the needle for 18 months.</li>
</ul>


Netflix net add bogey appears to be for 2Q losses in the -2-3M range (guide was -2M), if it hits this number is irrelevant, the 3Q/2H22 guide is more important.
BBG was bullish on NFLX's quarter recently, but we think misses the forest from the trees regarding ever ramping competition. 
Ad-Based Netflix subs *might* hit by end of 2022, but won't move the needle for 18 months.


Tactical TMT 2Q Earnings Trading Idea: Short NFLX

Netflix Inc

Tactical TMT 2Q Earnings Trading Idea: Short NFLX