Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Forthcoming Tech Inflection to Extend the Upturn in the Global Tech Cycle

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>The near-term growth outlook should be relatively insulated from the ongoing spike in COVID-19 cases, given the high degree of automation in the high-tech manufacturing sectors that is the primary driver of the cyclical upturn.</li>
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<strong>Our full-year GDP growth forecast stands at 6%, down slightly from our previous estimate of 6.5%</strong>, as the hit to consumer spending and local services activity is offset by durable strength in exports and continued upside surprises in fixed investment.</li>
<li>A back-of-the-envelope exercise that folds in our growth forecasts while assuming unchanged potential growth of about 2.7% indicates a material positive output gap of about 2.5% by end-2021, implying a certain level of inflationary pressure.</li>
<li>Taiwan’s monetary authority is notable for its explicit commitment to exchange rate stability, which, given the market’s bullish bets on the TWD, would mean it prefers to stand pat on policy. The question is – could inflation a touch hotter than expectations compel it to move ahead of schedule? <strong>Our best guess is that the central bank maintains its policy stance this year, but introduces macroprudential curbs to reduce signs of froth in domestic real estate.</strong>
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The near-term growth outlook should be relatively insulated from the ongoing spike in COVID-19 cases, given the high degree of automation in the high-tech manufacturing sectors that is the primary driver of the cyclical upturn.

Our full-year GDP growth forecast stands at 6%, down slightly from our previous estimate of 6.5%, as the hit to consumer spending and local services activity is offset by durable strength in exports and continued upside surprises in fixed investment.
A back-of-the-envelope exercise that folds in our growth forecasts while assuming unchanged potential growth of about 2.7% indicates a material positive output gap of about 2.5% by end-2021, implying a certain level of inflationary pressure.
Taiwan’s monetary authority is notable for its explicit commitment to exchange rate stability, which, given the market’s bullish bets on the TWD, would mean it prefers to stand pat on policy. The question is – could inflation a touch hotter than expectations compel it to move ahead of schedule? Our best guess is that the central bank maintains its policy stance this year, but introduces macroprudential curbs to reduce signs of froth in domestic real estate.



Taiwan: Could Robust Growth and Strong Inflation Compel a Rate Hike This Year?