European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.</li>
<li>Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.</li>
<li>Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.
Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.
Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.


Telefonica SA

TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains