Pinduoduo: Cost Cutting Wearing Out, Margins Heading Towards Our Steady State Target of 6-7%

Pinduoduo: Untaming TEMU Through $100 Coupons

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US).</a>
</li>
<li>Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to give in easily to the competition. Thus, TEMU could be a significant burden on Pinduoduo’s profitability in the medium-long term.</li>
<li>Considering the discounts, advertisements and promotional spending done by TEMU in the fourth quarter, we think it is unlikely that Pinduoduo will meet the 4Q22 consensus OP of RMB 11.7bn.</li>
</ul>


Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US).

Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to give in easily to the competition. Thus, TEMU could be a significant burden on Pinduoduo’s profitability in the medium-long term.
Considering the discounts, advertisements and promotional spending done by TEMU in the fourth quarter, we think it is unlikely that Pinduoduo will meet the 4Q22 consensus OP of RMB 11.7bn.


TEMU: A Burden on PDD’s Profitability & Possibly a Legal Nightmare