Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Tencent (700 HK) 2Q2026 Results Preview: The Gaming Scare Is a Head-Fake, the Shorts Are Mistaken

Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

TENCENT MUSIC (1698 HK) 1Q FY2026 Earnings Review: Results Above, Outlook More Stable. Deep Value.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Domestic games +17% YoY, not the feared decline. Spring Festival deferrals released as expected; deferred revenue grew RMB23bn — the 3Q revenue set-up is intact.</li>
<li>Capex RMB52.8bn (+176% YoY) was the one real miss; FCF turned -RMB13.8bn. Excluding AI infrastructure prepayments, FCF was +RMB37.6bn — the cash engine holds.</li>
<li>Maintain BULLISH view with unchanged TP of HK$670 — SOTP at 20x games&amp;marketing earnings, 4.0–4.5x fintech and cloud revenue; net cash erosion offset by marketing and cloud estimate upgrades.</li>
</ul>


Domestic games +17% YoY, not the feared decline. Spring Festival deferrals released as expected; deferred revenue grew RMB23bn — the 3Q revenue set-up is intact.
Capex RMB52.8bn (+176% YoY) was the one real miss; FCF turned -RMB13.8bn. Excluding AI infrastructure prepayments, FCF was +RMB37.6bn — the cash engine holds.
Maintain BULLISH view with unchanged TP of HK$670 — SOTP at 20x games&amp;marketing earnings, 4.0–4.5x fintech and cloud revenue; net cash erosion offset by marketing and cloud estimate upgrades.


Tencent (700 HK) 2Q FY2026 Review: The Shorts Were Wrong — Now the Capex Is the Story