Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

A Long & Short Investment Ideas generator for Asian Equities with 10 years experience in a Hedge fund focused on bottom-up ideas, searching out mispriced ideas and misunderstood investment thesis. Provides on-the-ground insights in various Asian markets with a sway towards ASEAN. Experienced and survived the Asian Financial Crisis in a family business, as well as the Global Financial Crisis in financial markets where lessons learned. It's all about understanding business drivers and navigating business cycles, which has high applicability in generating investment ideas. 

Investment horizon: Mid to Long term

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Thai Beverage: No Near Term Catalyst as BeerCo IPO Is Deferred. Value Buy or Value Trap?

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Delayed Beer IPO and Undervaluation

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

StubWorld: ThaiBev’s BeerCo Spin-Off One Step Closer

ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates and Crystallizing Growth Potential for BeerCo

ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Thoughts on BeerCo and ThaiBev HoldCo Valuation

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - More Clarity With Beer

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.</p>
<div>Compared to other listed breweries in the region, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. </div>
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<div>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. </div>
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<p>Since 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.</p>

The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.
Compared to other listed breweries in the region, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. 

Compared to CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. 

Since 6 months ago, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet