New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect a solid 1H26 result from The a2 Milk Company (ATM) when it reports on Monday, 16 February 2026.</li><li>1H26 continuing operations revenue growth (year-on-year) is expected to be higher than 2H25 revenue growth (year-on-year); we forecast ~+15% 1H26 revenue growth and, overall, our forecasts are broadly in line with consensus.</li><li>We are focused on: (1) English label revenue growth (we forecast ~+20%), in light of positive datapoints and the impact of a2 Genesis HMO within this (Genesis-specific datapoints are also positive); (2) a2 Pokeno progress (our channel checks suggest EBITDA losses may be less than guidance of -NZ$30m to -NZ$35m); (3) adjacent growth performance, noting the growing importance of ATM’s other nutritionals segment (we are particularly interested in performance of ATM’s new adult/senior powder products, along with a2 zhenzihu) and the emergence of Vietnam as a small, but helpful, growth driver; and (4) capital management—we suspect it is too early for ATM to foreshadow further capital management, particularly prior to SAMR registration being achieved at a2 Pokeno, but broad comments will be of interest (our medium-term dividends are well ahead of consensus).</li></ul>

We expect a solid 1H26 result from The a2 Milk Company (ATM) when it reports on Monday, 16 February 2026.1H26 continuing operations revenue growth (year-on-year) is expected to be higher than 2H25 revenue growth (year-on-year); we forecast ~+15% 1H26 revenue growth and, overall, our forecasts are broadly in line with consensus.We are focused on: (1) English label revenue growth (we forecast ~+20%), in light of positive datapoints and the impact of a2 Genesis HMO within this (Genesis-specific datapoints are also positive); (2) a2 Pokeno progress (our channel checks suggest EBITDA losses may be less than guidance of -NZ$30m to -NZ$35m); (3) adjacent growth performance, noting the growing importance of ATM’s other nutritionals segment (we are particularly interested in performance of ATM’s new adult/senior powder products, along with a2 zhenzihu) and the emergence of Vietnam as a small, but helpful, growth driver; and (4) capital management—we suspect it is too early for ATM to foreshadow further capital management, particularly prior to SAMR registration being achieved at a2 Pokeno, but broad comments will be of interest (our medium-term dividends are well ahead of consensus).

The A2 Milk Company 1H26 Preview—A Genesis Of Growth

A2 Milk Co Ltd

The A2 Milk Company 1H26 Preview—A Genesis Of Growth