New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Births in China during 2023 of 9.02m were +15% ahead of our 7.86m forecast (and likely notably ahead of market expectations). At this stage we leave our earnings forecasts for The a2 Milk Company (ATM) unchanged but increase our 2024 new birth forecasts.</li><li>Under our revised industry model changes, we estimate the current share price implies ~+100 bps of China Infant Formula (IF) market share gains over the medium term, assuming ~15% EBITDA margins.</li><li>We are more optimistic and forecast ~+200–250 bps of market share expansion.</li></ul>

Births in China during 2023 of 9.02m were +15% ahead of our 7.86m forecast (and likely notably ahead of market expectations). At this stage we leave our earnings forecasts for The a2 Milk Company (ATM) unchanged but increase our 2024 new birth forecasts.Under our revised industry model changes, we estimate the current share price implies ~+100 bps of China Infant Formula (IF) market share gains over the medium term, assuming ~15% EBITDA margins.We are more optimistic and forecast ~+200–250 bps of market share expansion.

The A2 Milk Company -A Positive Macro Surprise

A2 Milk Co Ltd

The A2 Milk Company -A Positive Macro Surprise