High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas.

I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements.

As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.</li><li>The values of large consumer brands were skyrocketing. They were ideal vehicles to push products to oversaturated consumers.</li><li>Multiples have compressed since then. Today, markets deem a consumer brand revenue Dollar about 45% less valuable than they did in late 2021. </li></ul>

From 2010 to 2021, the median EV/revenue multiple of America’s leading consumer brand companies expanded from just 2x to over 5x.The values of large consumer brands were skyrocketing. They were ideal vehicles to push products to oversaturated consumers.Multiples have compressed since then. Today, markets deem a consumer brand revenue Dollar about 45% less valuable than they did in late 2021. 

Walmart

The Death of Consumer Brands?