August CPI Review: Are U.S. Inflation Pressures Easing?

Underlying U.S. Inflation Is Not Slowing (The Core Is Rotten)

The Risk of a Persistent Inflation Lift from Trade Protectionism

Trump’s Ill-Advised Tariffs Should Lift Inflation

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

<p>Though there were no dramatic surprises in last week’s U.S. CPI data, the upward creep in underlying inflation—though gradual—is unmistakable.  In recent testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Powell downplayed the progress toward the inflation goal and also suggested that the risks to inflation remain tilted toward the downside.  In this insight we argue that Powell is misjudging the inflation risks and the data suggest the Fed should declare victory on its price stability objective.</p>

Though there were no dramatic surprises in last week’s U.S. CPI data, the upward creep in underlying inflation—though gradual—is unmistakable.  In recent testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Powell downplayed the progress toward the inflation goal and also suggested that the risks to inflation remain tilted toward the downside.  In this insight we argue that Powell is misjudging the inflation risks and the data suggest the Fed should declare victory on its price stability objective.

The Fed's Downplaying Of Inflation Target Progress Is Unwarranted

US Breakeven 10 Year

The Fed's Downplaying Of Inflation Target Progress Is Unwarranted