Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Four years' front-office markets sales: FX and rates sales at HSBC covering EM, then FX sales with rates strategy at CBA as Senior Associate. Combines deep understanding of markets , macro and geopolitics.

The Flightless Hike: Receiving NZD 1y1y Ahead of the September MPS

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The September RBNZ resolved as we projected: a 25bp hike with the OCR path modestly trimmed, citing on-target core, anchored expectations, and a softening labour market. Hawkish previews were wrong.</li>
<li>Market pricing followed our mechanism. With the terminal effectively reaffirmed, the one-in-four weight on a hawkish 4% terminal priced out: the terminal fell 20bp to 3.28%; October halved to 30.5%.</li>
<li>Key risk arrived before the catalyst: right on the RBNZ, stopped trade. US-Iran escalation on 1 September took us out at -15bp; Brent hit $97.04, spiking the 1y1y to 4.14%.</li>
</ul>


The September RBNZ resolved as we projected: a 25bp hike with the OCR path modestly trimmed, citing on-target core, anchored expectations, and a softening labour market. Hawkish previews were wrong.
Market pricing followed our mechanism. With the terminal effectively reaffirmed, the one-in-four weight on a hawkish 4% terminal priced out: the terminal fell 20bp to 3.28%; October halved to 30.5%.
Key risk arrived before the catalyst: right on the RBNZ, stopped trade. US-Iran escalation on 1 September took us out at -15bp; Brent hit $97.04, spiking the 1y1y to 4.14%.


The Flightless Hike, Marked to Market: The RBNZ Did What the Data Said