Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

APAC Capital Markets

APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states It / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yields above 5%, an AI-only earnings story, and the CPI print that decides November?</li>
<li>October and November 2026 are probably “As Good As It Gets”.  Pushing higher requires exceptional, unlikely growth. Consequently, any disappointing results or unexpected shocks could trigger a sharp sell-off.</li>
<li>Bottom-Up, the AI complex accounts for more than half of expected earnings growth. The leaders are technically stretched. I would use any results-driven rally to recaliberate, not to chase</li>
</ul>


Yields above 5%, an AI-only earnings story, and the CPI print that decides November?
October and November 2026 are probably “As Good As It Gets”.  Pushing higher requires exceptional, unlikely growth. Consequently, any disappointing results or unexpected shocks could trigger a sharp sell-off.
Bottom-Up, the AI complex accounts for more than half of expected earnings growth. The leaders are technically stretched. I would use any results-driven rally to recaliberate, not to chase


The Guzzler Chronicles: As Good As It Gets