The Great Dividend Reinvestment Trade of March 2025 looks like it might be "Less Great" because of Q1 cross-asset dispersion. That means Japanese stocks outperformed bonds so get sold.
What is covered in the Full Insight:
Introduction to Japan's March Dividend Rebalance
Dividend Trade Dynamics
Influence of GPIF and Public Pensions
Market Expectations and Index Flows
Conclusions and Suggested Strategies
Boomeranged on Wed, 26 Mar 2025 11:05
History shows (see Discussion Point) that "the right trade" is to be outright long TOPIX from today at the close to sell Friday (dividend ex-date) at the close. High hit-rate. High average outright return. Our Quiddity Index Data shows an +$473mm of broad TOPIX buying 28-Mar at the close against 35 idio sells, and the Nikkei 225 rebal is +$2.2bn of funding on 31 March. Global buying likely too.