bullish

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

1.6k Views19 Mar 2025 21:19
The Great Dividend Reinvestment Trade of March 2025 looks like it might be "Less Great" because of Q1 cross-asset dispersion. That means Japanese stocks outperformed bonds so get sold.
What is covered in the Full Insight:
  • Introduction to Japan's March Dividend Rebalance
  • Dividend Trade Dynamics
  • Influence of GPIF and Public Pensions
  • Market Expectations and Index Flows
  • Conclusions and Suggested Strategies
Boomeranged on Wed, 26 Mar 2025 11:05
History shows (see Discussion Point) that "the right trade" is to be outright long TOPIX from today at the close to sell Friday (dividend ex-date) at the close. High hit-rate. High average outright return. Our Quiddity Index Data shows an +$473mm of broad TOPIX buying 28-Mar at the close against 35 idio sells, and the Nikkei 225 rebal is +$2.2bn of funding on 31 March. Global buying likely too.
SUMMARY
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