ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

ROTI: Bread Goes for Abroad and Digitization

Sari (ROTI): Long-Term Positive But No near Term Catalyst in FY 2018

Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) ​- A Baker's Dozen - On the Ground in J-Town

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">This week's offering across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Last week ended with the Balinese celebration of Nyepi, which is a day of silence and contemplation, where only candle light is permitted at night and nobody is permitted to leave their house or hotel on Bali. This year they went as far as blocking mobile internet for the day itself, which was a refreshing break from the constant bombardment of social media and a chance to reflect and enjoy the gentle art of quiet contemplation and even conversation.  </div><h2>Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-trade-currency-appreciation-well-positioned" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18481">Asian Trade &amp; Currency Appreciation - Well Positioned</a>, economic Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728">Sharmila Whelan</a> notes that she has been flagging for some time that underpinning Asia’s stellar export performance is the turnaround in the global profit cycle and the end of dollar deflationary policies.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/about-1-200-stocks-in-asia-ex-japan-matter-most-for-global-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18399">About 1,200 Stocks in Asia Ex-Japan Matter Most for Global Investors</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> looks at the total investable universe in Asia Ex-Japan and looks to pluck out which are most important to global investors.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-golden-age-of-infrastructure-for-asia-is-not-without-its-risks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18499">A Golden Age of Infrastructure for Asia Is Not Without Its Risks</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> suggests that the decrepit state of infrastructure following decades of under-investment continues to weigh on Southeast Asian economies, where the infrastructure deficit is the greatest in archipelagic Indonesia and the Philippines.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/not-your-typical-unemployment-inflation-tradeoff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18450">Not Your Typical Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1930" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1930">Jun Trinidad</a> states that inflation rising (Feb: 3.9%YoY) in concert with the jobless rate edging down to 5.3% (Jan labor survey) depicted an active inflation-unemployment tradeoff. However upbeat job creation didn’t square well with fading average weekly work hours and a persistent core unemployment of more than 2m. What this signalled is a less threatening wage inflation risk, which supports policymakers’ sentiment to not rush policy rate hikes.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-march-18-dodging-the-global-trade-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18476">Thai Macro Watch (March'18): Dodging the Global Trade War</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> notes Trump followed up his first volley of white goods tariff with one on steel, prompting an increasing real prospect of global trade wars, as other economic superpowers such as China and Europe start to look around for how they can retaliate. In counter intuitive Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-turning-chinese" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18269">Malaysia: Turning Chinese</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr. Jim Walker</a> notes suggests that since the Asian Crisis and the introduction of capital controls that froze assets in Malaysia, the attraction of the KLCI has steadily waned. The rise of China has had a lot to do with that but political scandals, moderating economic growth and few new, inspiring changes have left Malaysia out in the cold. In a follow up insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-set-fair-for-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18530">Malaysia: Set Fair for 2018</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr. Jim Walker</a> follows up on his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-rurning-chinese" target="_blank">Malaysia: Turning Chinese</a>, which suggests that the country is set to become the key ASEAN centre for China’s Belt and Road Initiative ambitions.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/widodo-s-vp-search-no-obvious-choice" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18578">Widodo's VP Search: No Obvious Choice</a>, political insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> notes that Indonesian President Joko Widodo has assigned State Secretary Pratikno to head a search team for a vice‑presidential running mate. <h2>Equity Bottom-up Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/they-serve-pizza-on-this-ship" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18352">They Serve Pizza On This Ship!</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a good look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20433" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20433:1">Thoresen Thai Agencies Pcl (TTA TB)</a>, which has seen as title as Thailand's leading shipping company slip away and it seems it chosen future is to be more of a conglomerate, with an eclectic mix of businesses from Pizzas to Krispey Kreme Donuts and Nestle coffee in Thailand.  In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitra-pinasthika-mustika-mpmx-motorbikes-engine-oil-and-finance-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18185">Mitra Pinasthika Mustika (MPMX) - Motorbikes, Engine Oil, and Finance</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13619" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13619:1">Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk Pt (MPMX IJ)</a> post a company visit with management. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-it-s-all-about-green-investments-company-helping-to-clear-the-air-in-beijing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18432">Sunpower: It's All About Green Investments; Company Helping to Clear the Air in Beijing</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> notes that recently <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18395" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1">Sunpower Group Ltd (SPWG SP)</a> announced its full-year 2017 results. Executive Chairman, Guo Hong Xin, and CEO Ma Ming were both in Singapore to meet with investors and explain the story.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/our-take-on-quarz-capital-s-letter-to-cse-global" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18464">Our Take on Quarz Capital’s Letter to CSE Global</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> notes that on the 26th February 2018, Singapore based activist firm Quarz Capital sent an open letter to the board of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4025" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4025:1">CSE Global Ltd (CSE SP)</a>, urging the company to take immediate steps that it believes will generate a return of more than 40%. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/uberflash-drawing-more-drivers-back-overhang-from-ccs-review-likely-to-clear-post-uber-grab-deal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18336">UberFlash Drawing More Drivers Back to CD, Overhang from CCS Likely to Clear Post Uber-Grab Deal</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a>  discusses both the initial findings on UberFlash and how it will likely impact <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/497" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1">Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP)</a>'s taxi segment. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-danamon-fundamentals-revisited-plus-thoughts-on-m-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18521">Bank Danamon: Fundamentals Revisited Plus Thoughts on M&amp;A</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> takes a close look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1">Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ)</a> and suggests that the bank has shown good fundamental improvement, especially with reduced losses of micro loans operations and lower NPL ratio. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sasseur-reit-ipo-a-lot-of-talk-about-growth-but-a-large-part-of-it-will-flow-to-the-sponsor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18469">Sasseur REIT IPO - A Lot of Talk About Growth but a Large Part of It Will Flow to the Sponsor</a>, our own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4">Sumeet Singh</a> highlights that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26807:1">Sasseur Real Estate Investment (SASSR SP)</a> plans to raise US$300m in its IPO, with nearly half the book already taken up by cornerstone investors including the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/446" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and L Capital, among others.  The yield, the cornerstone list, the implied cap rate and the sponsor's background look compelling.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/analysis-of-the-tie-up-with-the-chinese-counterpart-for-apac-realty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18511">Analysis of the Tie up with the Chinese Counterpart for APAC Realty</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> comments on the APAC Realty management's announcement of a partnership with MLN Overseas to provide MLN Chinese customers a service to lease out or resell their overseas properties in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia.in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grab-go-jek-garena-sea-who-will-be-the-payment-goliath-for-southeast-asia-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18538">Grab, Go-Jek, Garena(SEA), Who Will Be the Payment Goliath for Southeast Asia? - Part 1</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a> highlights that the battle for the payment pie in heating up in Southeast Asia, as Grab yesterday announced that it will launch a new Fintech platform called Grab Financial.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thanachart-capital-has-it-improved-too-much" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18589">Thanachart Capital: Has It Improved Too Much?</a>, Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2554" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554">Paul Hollingworth</a> notes that the fundamental trends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/297" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:297:1">Thanachart Capital Pcl (TCAP TB)</a> are positive (comfortably the best in Thailand) and the valuation of positive change indicates opportunity despite the strong performance of the shares of late.  <h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-weak-credit-conditions-in-1q18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18413">Singapore – Weak Credit Conditions in 1Q18</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> writes that he believes that the weakened credit conditions in Singapore during January 2018 are at odds with expectations and perception. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-thai-riviera-initiative-boosts-growth-prospects" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18474">Thailand: Thai Riviera Initiative Boosts Growth Prospects</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> looks at the prospects for the development of the Andaman coast in Thailand as the next "Thai Riviera".In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/power-thai-coons-rise-to-the-occasion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18429">Power Thai-Coons Rise to the Occasion</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> looks at the revolving door of Thailand's richest individuals. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-small-cap-top-movers-buybacks-and-insider-dealing-feb-18" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18525">Asia Small-Cap: Top Movers, Buybacks and Insider Dealing - Feb'18</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a> publishes the second instalment of Wickhams Hill’s monthly note covering the performance of small-cap markets across ASEAN and Hong Kong. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-diary-builders-miners-and-babies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18520">Small Cap Diary: Builders, Miners, and Babies</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> visits three small cap companies and provides his insights. The companies include mining player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20984" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20984:1">Padaeng Industry Pub Co Ltd (PDI TB)</a>, construction company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5202" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5202:1">Christiani &amp; Nielsen Thai (CNT TB)</a> and consumer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17299" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17299:1">Moong Pattana International (MOONG TB)</a>.

This week's offering across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Last week ended with the Balinese celebration of Nyepi, which is a day of silence and contemplation, where only candle light is permitted at night and nobody is permitted to leave their house or hotel on Bali. This year they went as far as blocking mobile internet for the day itself, which was a refreshing break from the constant bombardment of social media and a chance to reflect and enjoy the gentle art of quiet contemplation and even conversation.  Macro InsightsIn Asian Trade &amp; Currency Appreciation - Well Positioned, economic Insight Provider Sharmila Whelan notes that she has been flagging for some time that underpinning Asia’s stellar export performance is the turnaround in the global profit cycle and the end of dollar deflationary policies.In his insight, About 1,200 Stocks in Asia Ex-Japan Matter Most for Global Investors, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA looks at the total investable universe in Asia Ex-Japan and looks to pluck out which are most important to global investors.In his insight, A Golden Age of Infrastructure for Asia Is Not Without Its Risks, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that the decrepit state of infrastructure following decades of under-investment continues to weigh on Southeast Asian economies, where the infrastructure deficit is the greatest in archipelagic Indonesia and the Philippines.In Not Your Typical Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff, Jun Trinidad states that inflation rising (Feb: 3.9%YoY) in concert with the jobless rate edging down to 5.3% (Jan labor survey) depicted an active inflation-unemployment tradeoff. However upbeat job creation didn’t square well with fading average weekly work hours and a persistent core unemployment of more than 2m. What this signalled is a less threatening wage inflation risk, which supports policymakers’ sentiment to not rush policy rate hikes.In Thai Macro Watch (March'18): Dodging the Global Trade War, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes Trump followed up his first volley of white goods tariff with one on steel, prompting an increasing real prospect of global trade wars, as other economic superpowers such as China and Europe start to look around for how they can retaliate. In counter intuitive Insight, Malaysia: Turning Chinese, Dr. Jim Walker notes suggests that since the Asian Crisis and the introduction of capital controls that froze assets in Malaysia, the attraction of the KLCI has steadily waned. The rise of China has had a lot to do with that but political scandals, moderating economic growth and few new, inspiring changes have left Malaysia out in the cold. In a follow up insight, Malaysia: Set Fair for 2018, Dr. Jim Walker follows up on his insight, Malaysia: Turning Chinese, which suggests that the country is set to become the key ASEAN centre for China’s Belt and Road Initiative ambitions.In Widodo's VP Search: No Obvious Choice, political insight provider Kevin O’Rourke notes that Indonesian President Joko Widodo has assigned State Secretary Pratikno to head a search team for a vice‑presidential running mate. Equity Bottom-up InsightsIn They Serve Pizza On This Ship!, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a good look at Thoresen Thai Agencies Pcl (TTA TB), which has seen as title as Thailand's leading shipping company slip away and it seems it chosen future is to be more of a conglomerate, with an eclectic mix of businesses from Pizzas to Krispey Kreme Donuts and Nestle coffee in Thailand.  In his insight, Mitra Pinasthika Mustika (MPMX) - Motorbikes, Engine Oil, and Finance, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh circles back to Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk Pt (MPMX IJ) post a company visit with management. In Sunpower: It's All About Green Investments; Company Helping to Clear the Air in Beijing, Nicolas Van Broekhoven notes that recently Sunpower Group Ltd (SPWG SP) announced its full-year 2017 results. Executive Chairman, Guo Hong Xin, and CEO Ma Ming were both in Singapore to meet with investors and explain the story.In Our Take on Quarz Capital’s Letter to CSE Global, insight provider Lloyd Moffatt notes that on the 26th February 2018, Singapore based activist firm Quarz Capital sent an open letter to the board of CSE Global Ltd (CSE SP), urging the company to take immediate steps that it believes will generate a return of more than 40%. In UberFlash Drawing More Drivers Back to CD, Overhang from CCS Likely to Clear Post Uber-Grab Deal, insight provider Valerie Law, CFA  discusses both the initial findings on UberFlash and how it will likely impact Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP)'s taxi segment. In Bank Danamon: Fundamentals Revisited Plus Thoughts on M&amp;A, Johannes Salim, CFA takes a close look at Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ) and suggests that the bank has shown good fundamental improvement, especially with reduced losses of micro loans operations and lower NPL ratio. In Sasseur REIT IPO - A Lot of Talk About Growth but a Large Part of It Will Flow to the Sponsor, our own Sumeet Singh highlights that Sasseur Real Estate Investment (SASSR SP) plans to raise US$300m in its IPO, with nearly half the book already taken up by cornerstone investors including the likes of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and L Capital, among others.  The yield, the cornerstone list, the implied cap rate and the sponsor's background look compelling.In Analysis of the Tie up with the Chinese Counterpart for APAC Realty, Henry Soediarko comments on the APAC Realty management's announcement of a partnership with MLN Overseas to provide MLN Chinese customers a service to lease out or resell their overseas properties in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia.in Grab, Go-Jek, Garena(SEA), Who Will Be the Payment Goliath for Southeast Asia? - Part 1, Valerie Law, CFA highlights that the battle for the payment pie in heating up in Southeast Asia, as Grab yesterday announced that it will launch a new Fintech platform called Grab Financial.In Thanachart Capital: Has It Improved Too Much?, Insight Provider Paul Hollingworth notes that the fundamental trends at Thanachart Capital Pcl (TCAP TB) are positive (comfortably the best in Thailand) and the valuation of positive change indicates opportunity despite the strong performance of the shares of late.  Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Singapore – Weak Credit Conditions in 1Q18, Daniel Tabbush writes that he believes that the weakened credit conditions in Singapore during January 2018 are at odds with expectations and perception. In Thailand: Thai Riviera Initiative Boosts Growth Prospects, Jason Tan looks at the prospects for the development of the Andaman coast in Thailand as the next "Thai Riviera".In Power Thai-Coons Rise to the Occasion, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at the revolving door of Thailand's richest individuals. In Asia Small-Cap: Top Movers, Buybacks and Insider Dealing - Feb'18, Lloyd Moffatt publishes the second instalment of Wickhams Hill’s monthly note covering the performance of small-cap markets across ASEAN and Hong Kong. In Small Cap Diary: Builders, Miners, and Babies, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA visits three small cap companies and provides his insights. The companies include mining player Padaeng Industry Pub Co Ltd (PDI TB), construction company Christiani &amp; Nielsen Thai (CNT TB) and consumer company Moong Pattana International (MOONG TB). 

Moong Pattana International PC (MOONG TB)

The Nyepi Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Infrastructure, Pizza, and Uber

Multiple Countries

The Nyepi Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Infrastructure, Pizza, and Uber