bearish

The US Bear Market: Stage One - DENIAL

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646 Views06 Mar 2025 04:42

Boomeranged on Sun, 30 Mar 2025 07:00

US consumer sentiment fell to a more than two-year low this month, with final March sentiment index declining to 57 from 64.7 a month earlier. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.1% over the next 5 to 10 years, the highest since 1993! They see costs rising > 5% in the next 12 months. 2/3s of consumers are expecting unemployment to rise this year, the highest reading since 2009!

SUMMARY

After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market. The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.
Inflation pressures will tie the Fed's hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put. Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.
The administration's policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.

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