ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

496 Views11 Mar 2025 22:52

SUMMARY

The US has entered the first leg of its bear market. Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.
Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth. Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.
Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade. Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.

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