On March 6th we published, "The US Bear Market: Stage One - DENIAL". We then advised to sell any rally on 3/24. We targeted the first support level at 4800 to 5000 for the S&P which will complete the 1st leg down of the bear market (DENIAL stage). At this level a news driven strong bounce can happen. Denial will reappear and start to mix with the next emotional phase of ANGER.
The initial target range for the S&P in the US bear market is 4800 to 5000. This level also coincides with the technical level of -20% from the top.
The stock market and economy in the US are highly co-dependent, and the bear market will cause consumption to fall more than in previous market downturns.
Foreign investors have started to reduce their overweight US allocations quickly. Retiree "Sequence of Returns Risk" will add to selling pressure in the US market.
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