Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

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FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Since the end of last year, the US dollar has persisted around its strongest level in two years on the back of rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion.</li>
<li>I expect the dollar to remain strong at least until the US rates volatility drops meaningfully and the headwinds to US equities, including geopolitical and domestic growth concerns, fade.</li>
<li>Once these risks pass, the dollar – which is expensive in valuation terms – should depreciate as the year progresses, creating a supportive environment for EM currencies.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of last year, the US dollar has persisted around its strongest level in two years on the back of rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion.
I expect the dollar to remain strong at least until the US rates volatility drops meaningfully and the headwinds to US equities, including geopolitical and domestic growth concerns, fade.
Once these risks pass, the dollar – which is expensive in valuation terms – should depreciate as the year progresses, creating a supportive environment for EM currencies.


The US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

Dollar Index

The US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies