New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS)'s broadly breakeven FY25 result was largely as expected but is still disappointing in light of its NZ$3.1bn of sales and almost NZ$1bn of gross profit.</li><li>In the meantime, we think FY26 will be another challenging year: while domestic consumer spending is showing signs of stabilisation, gross margins remain under pressure, and competitive tensions will rise with the arrival of IKEA in December 2025.</li><li>We recognise that the leverage in this business is significant, but continue to view the near-term risk-reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS)'s broadly breakeven FY25 result was largely as expected but is still disappointing in light of its NZ$3.1bn of sales and almost NZ$1bn of gross profit.In the meantime, we think FY26 will be another challenging year: while domestic consumer spending is showing signs of stabilisation, gross margins remain under pressure, and competitive tensions will rise with the arrival of IKEA in December 2025.We recognise that the leverage in this business is significant, but continue to view the near-term risk-reward as skewed to the downside.

The Warehouse Group FY25 Result—Big Box, Small Profit