ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare

SembCorp Marine and SCI - A Gloriously Messy Recap and De-Merger - Big Win for SCI

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a></p>
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/labour-market-slack-remains-but-fomc-will-need-to-tighten-by-mid-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40185" rel="noopener">Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021,</a> CrossASEAN Cheif Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> revisits the US Economy, where he sees inflationary risks ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-covid-19-economic-reality-bites" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40286" rel="noopener">Post-COVID 19 - Economic Reality Bites,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> suggests that we may be about to see a change in market sentiment as the realisation of the true impact of COVID-19 dawns on liquidity-driven markets. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-biting-the-bullet-on-restructuring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40167" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Biting the Bullet on Restructuring,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this leading Indonesian lender as it lays out its COVID-19 restructuring plans.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sats-traffic-99-5-in-april-and-may-how-much-worse-can-it-get" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40142" rel="noopener">SATS: Traffic -99.5% in April and May; How Much Worse Can It Get?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits Singapore's leading aircraft maintenance player and asks whether we have hit the bottom.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/in-malaysia-carlsberg-or-heineken" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40195" rel="noopener">In Malaysia - Carlsberg or Heineken?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in on the Malaysian brewery space. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/btps-exceptional-core" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40179" rel="noopener">BTPS – Exceptional Core,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits Indonesia's most interesting Sharia lender and finds an encouraging picture. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keppel-corp-stretched-vs-proxy-baskets-and-now-with-new-risk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40339" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp - Stretched Vs Proxy Baskets And Now With New Risk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits this long-in-the-tooth partial offer. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-offer-cast-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40164" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> comments on the recently announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> S$2.1bn rights issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-industries-sembcorp-marine-rights-issue-and-demerger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40193" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries/Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue and Demerger,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> also comments on this ongoing transaction.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smm-rights-issue-demerger-is-one-step-closer-to-keppel-o-m-smm-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40152" rel="noopener">SMM Rights Issue &amp; Demerger Is One Step Closer to Keppel O&amp;M+SMM Merger,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ke-yan-cfa-frm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9" rel="noopener">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a> looks at this ongoing situation but sees a longer-term endgame ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bts-solid-core-operation-with-huge-potential-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40251" rel="noopener">BTS: Solid Core Operation with Huge Potential Upside</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> and expect some softening in the outlook. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spa-major-beneficiary-of-return-chinese-tourist-arrivals-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40276" rel="noopener">SPA: Major Beneficiary of Return Chinese Tourist Arrivals in Thailand,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> upgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-wellness-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3765:1" rel="noopener">Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB)</a> to BUY as it will be a beneficiary of Chinese tourists returning to Thailand. </p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-consumers-this-transformation-is-forever-buy-staples-and-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40256" rel="noopener">Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> zeros in on the changing behaviour of the Indonesian consumer over COVID-19. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-media-a-tale-of-two-cities-buy-mncn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40211" rel="noopener">Indonesian Media - A Tale of Two Cities - BUY MNCN,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits the sector in light of the ongoing COVID-19 impact.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-loan-forbearance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40143" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Loan Forbearance,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zooms in on the Indonesian banking sector, where he sees a relatively promising outlook.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sathorn-series-o-thai-banks-expand-abroad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38468" rel="noopener">Sathorn Series O: Thai Banks Expand Abroad,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> zeroes in on Thai Banks as they look overseas for future growth. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/whatsapp-paypal-funding-to-fortify-go-jek-s-go-pay-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40197" rel="noopener">WhatsApp, PayPal Funding To Fortify Go-Jek's Go-Pay Business,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/aqila-ali" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1652" rel="noopener">Aqila Ali</a> takes a look at the reasoning behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a>'s recent investment into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ).</a></p><h2>Credit Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-q1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40154" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> zeros in on recent results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>,  which were weaker than expected. </p>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.
Macro InsightsIn Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021, CrossASEAN Cheif Economist Prasenjit K. Basu revisits the US Economy, where he sees inflationary risks ahead. In Post-COVID 19 - Economic Reality Bites,Sharmila Whelan suggests that we may be about to see a change in market sentiment as the realisation of the true impact of COVID-19 dawns on liquidity-driven markets. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Biting the Bullet on Restructuring, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits this leading Indonesian lender as it lays out its COVID-19 restructuring plans.In SATS: Traffic -99.5% in April and May; How Much Worse Can It Get?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Singapore's leading aircraft maintenance player and asks whether we have hit the bottom.In Malaysia - Carlsberg or Heineken?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko zeros in on the Malaysian brewery space. In BTPS – Exceptional Core, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush revisits Indonesia's most interesting Sharia lender and finds an encouraging picture. In Keppel Corp - Stretched Vs Proxy Baskets And Now With New Risk, Travis Lundy revisits this long-in-the-tooth partial offer. In Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away,Travis Lundy comments on the recently announced Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) S$2.1bn rights issue. In Sembcorp Industries/Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue and Demerger,Arun George also comments on this ongoing transaction.In SMM Rights Issue &amp; Demerger Is One Step Closer to Keppel O&amp;M+SMM Merger,Ke Yan, CFA, FRM looks at this ongoing situation but sees a longer-term endgame ahead. In BTS: Solid Core Operation with Huge Potential Upside, our friends at Country Group revisit BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) and expect some softening in the outlook. In SPA: Major Beneficiary of Return Chinese Tourist Arrivals in Thailand,Country Group upgrade Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB) to BUY as it will be a beneficiary of Chinese tourists returning to Thailand. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh zeros in on the changing behaviour of the Indonesian consumer over COVID-19. In Indonesian Media - A Tale of Two Cities - BUY MNCN, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits the sector in light of the ongoing COVID-19 impact.In Indonesia Banks – Loan Forbearance, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zooms in on the Indonesian banking sector, where he sees a relatively promising outlook.In Sathorn Series O: Thai Banks Expand Abroad, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeroes in on Thai Banks as they look overseas for future growth. In WhatsApp, PayPal Funding To Fortify Go-Jek's Go-Pay Business,Aqila Ali takes a look at the reasoning behind Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)'s recent investment into Gojek (1379371D IJ).Credit InsightsIn Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020 Results,Trung Nguyen zeros in on recent results from Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ),  which were weaker than expected. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Consumer Transformation, Indonesian Banks, and Semcorp