ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Future Clarity Through Digital Means

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - More Clarity With Beer

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.</p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-philippines-marcos-arguably-the-front-runner-in-2022-presidential-polls" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Philippines: Marcos (Arguably) The Front-Runner In 2022 Presidential Polls</a>, economist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicholas-chia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Nicholas Chia</a> discusses the Philippines political outlook after Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr has confirmed his candidacy for the 2022 presidential elections. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-mas-decision-preview-stronger-sgd-if-central-bank-signals-future-policy-turn" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Singapore MAS Decision Preview: Stronger SGD if Central Bank Signals Future Policy Turn</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/manu-bhaskaran" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Manu Bhaskaran</a> discusses Singapore economic outlook. </p><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/crossasean-digital-economy-the-gloves-are-off-in-digital-finance" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CrossASEAN Digital Economy - The Gloves Are off in Digital Finance?</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> provides initial observations on Southeast Asian digital finance as competition between digital banks and conventional banks have started to heat up in Indonesia. </p><p><span>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-thbev-all-stars-aligned" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV): All Stars Aligned</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Henry Soediarko</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> as Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening. Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises. He believes that the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>.</span></p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bev-thbev-sp-neither-recovery-nor-beerco-ipo-is-priced-in-sotp-suggests-upside" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Neither Recovery nor BeerCo IPO Is Priced In. SOTP Suggests Upside.</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/devi-subhakesan" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Devi Subhakesan</a> provides an initial view on after<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9M2021, suggesting that a recovery is underway as the country opens to tourists from 1st November. The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-sea-corp-asian-tb-spin-off-listing-of-pet-food-likely-intended-to-unlock-value" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Asian Sea Corp (ASIAN TB): Spin-Off Listing of Pet Food Likely Intended to Unlock Value.</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/devi-subhakesan" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Devi Subhakesan</a> takes a look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-sea-corp-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Asian Sea (ASIAN TB)</a> after the company announced its intention to list the pet food business currently held in the 100% subsidiary Asian Alliance International (AAI), subject to regulatory approvals.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/converge-ict-bukalapak-msci-sair-related-selloffs" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Converge ICT &amp; Bukalapak: MSCI SAIR Related Selloffs?</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> discusses the big selloffs in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/converge-ict-solutions-inc-609f7498-aeeb-430e-a07d-50503172a1e3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Solutions (CNVRG PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> and the potential for index inclusions. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kbank-expect-3q21-earning-to-grow-yoy-and-qoq" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> KBANK: Expect 3Q21 Earning to Grow YoY and QoQ</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> presents a preview of results for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>'s where they expect 3Q2021 net profit to grow +36%YoY and +1.9%QoQ), driven by growth in NII and drop-in provisioning levels.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ttw-expect-3q21-earnings-to-be-the-peak-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TTW: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Be the Peak Quarter</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> maintains their BUY rating on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttw-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TTW Pcl (TTW TB)</a> and expect the company to report a QoQ increase in net profit in the 3Q2021 given that it is the peak quarter for hydro-generation, although profit from core operations will continue to drop to Bt641m (-12%YoY, -6%QoQ) due to weak sales from tap water in both industrial and household customers.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gulf-intuch-to-be-treated-under-equity-method-4q21-onwards" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> GULF: INTUCH to Be Treated Under Equity Method 4Q21 Onwards</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> after the company announced that<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> will be included on its financial statement using the equity method from 4Q2021 onwards.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scgp-expect-3q21-earnings-to-soften-qoq-due-to-lockdown-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SCGP: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Soften QoQ Due to Lockdown Impact</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> maintains its BUY rating for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP TB)</a> and expects its 3Q2021 earnings to grow to THB1.97bn (+48% YoY, -13% QoQ). Expect earnings recovery in 4Q2021 onwards, supported by capacity expansion into high margin products of the IPC segment and recovery in domestic and export markets after lockdown easing.</p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-china-sce-jsw-steel-ltd-kwg-living-group-lenovo-lippo-karawaci" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: China SCE, JSW Steel Ltd, KWG Living Group, Lenovo, Lippo Karawaci</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> maintains a "Stable” rating for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)</a>, as the company recorded a strong 3Q2021 and 9M2021 marketing sales, as well as improving fundamentals, despite the challenging market conditions amid the pandemic.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-chandra-asri-petrochemical-melco-resorts-entertainment-modern-land-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment, Modern Land China</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Leonard Law, CFA</a> discusses<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> after the company has delivered a notice to fully redeem the US$230mn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> 4.95 24 on 8th November 2021.</p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.
Macro InsightsIn The Philippines: Marcos (Arguably) The Front-Runner In 2022 Presidential Polls, economist Nicholas Chia discusses the Philippines political outlook after Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr has confirmed his candidacy for the 2022 presidential elections. In Singapore MAS Decision Preview: Stronger SGD if Central Bank Signals Future Policy Turn, Manu Bhaskaran discusses Singapore economic outlook. Equity Bottom UpIn CrossASEAN Digital Economy - The Gloves Are off in Digital Finance?, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh provides initial observations on Southeast Asian digital finance as competition between digital banks and conventional banks have started to heat up in Indonesia. In Thai Beverage (THBEV): All Stars Aligned, Henry Soediarko returns to look at Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) as Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening. Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises. He believes that the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting Thai Beverage (THBEV SP).In Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Neither Recovery nor BeerCo IPO Is Priced In. SOTP Suggests Upside., Devi Subhakesan provides an initial view on after Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9M2021, suggesting that a recovery is underway as the country opens to tourists from 1st November. The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.In Asian Sea Corp (ASIAN TB): Spin-Off Listing of Pet Food Likely Intended to Unlock Value., Devi Subhakesan takes a look at Asian Sea (ASIAN TB) after the company announced its intention to list the pet food business currently held in the 100% subsidiary Asian Alliance International (AAI), subject to regulatory approvals.In Converge ICT &amp; Bukalapak: MSCI SAIR Related Selloffs?, Brian Freitas discusses the big selloffs in Converge ICT Solutions (CNVRG PM) and Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) and the potential for index inclusions. In KBANK: Expect 3Q21 Earning to Grow YoY and QoQ, Country Group presents a preview of results for Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)'s where they expect 3Q2021 net profit to grow +36%YoY and +1.9%QoQ), driven by growth in NII and drop-in provisioning levels.In TTW: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Be the Peak Quarter, Country Group maintains their BUY rating on TTW Pcl (TTW TB) and expect the company to report a QoQ increase in net profit in the 3Q2021 given that it is the peak quarter for hydro-generation, although profit from core operations will continue to drop to Bt641m (-12%YoY, -6%QoQ) due to weak sales from tap water in both industrial and household customers.In GULF: INTUCH to Be Treated Under Equity Method 4Q21 Onwards, Country Group revisits Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) after the company announced that Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) will be included on its financial statement using the equity method from 4Q2021 onwards.In SCGP: Expect 3Q21 Earnings to Soften QoQ Due to Lockdown Impact, Country Group maintains its BUY rating for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP TB) and expects its 3Q2021 earnings to grow to THB1.97bn (+48% YoY, -13% QoQ). Expect earnings recovery in 4Q2021 onwards, supported by capacity expansion into high margin products of the IPC segment and recovery in domestic and export markets after lockdown easing.Credit InsightsIn Morning Views Asia: China SCE, JSW Steel Ltd, KWG Living Group, Lenovo, Lippo Karawaci, credit specialist Trung Nguyen maintains a "Stable” rating for Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ), as the company recorded a strong 3Q2021 and 9M2021 marketing sales, as well as improving fundamentals, despite the challenging market conditions amid the pandemic.In Morning Views Asia: Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment, Modern Land China, credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA discusses Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) after the company has delivered a notice to fully redeem the US$230mn Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) 4.95 24 on 8th November 2021.

Metropolis Healthcare Limited (METROHL IN)

Converge Information and Commu (CNVRG PM)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Digital Finance, Thai Beverage, and Astra's Auto Boon