ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">Please find below a brief summary if this week's Insights in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a>. For more detail please scroll down to the detail section. </div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-economy-roaring-but-could-inflation-surprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15671">Singapore: Economy Roaring but Could Inflation Surprise?</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that Singapore GDP expanded 5.2% y/y in 3Q17, from 2.9% growth in 2Q17. Notably, the manufacturing sector surged 18.4%, up from 8.4% registered in the previous quarter, driven by all clusters except transport engineering. In his Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippine-reforms-some-progress-along-with-setbacks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15672">Philippine Reforms: Some Progress, Along with Setbacks</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> comments on President Duterte's decision to uphold the ban on open-pit mining in the Philippines.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-danamon-takeover-redux" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15599">Bank Danamon: Takeover Redux</a>, our own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/263" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:263">Pranav Rao</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1">Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ)</a>, which seems to be the perennial takeover target amongst the banks in Indonesia. In a classically framed insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amata-immortals-of-the-industrials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15683">AMATA: Immortals of the Industrials</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a close look at industrial estate developer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3761" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3761:1">Amata Corp Public Co Ltd (AMATA TB)</a>  post 9M results.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tax-troubles-backfire-for-thailand-s-big-tobacco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15725">Tax Troubles Backfire for Thailand’s Big Tobacco</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on the Thai tobacco industry and notes that Thailand is probably the second biggest tobacco market in ASEAN after Indonesia. In a five-part insight series, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> delve deep into consumer behavior in Singapore, highlighting the top five consumer trends, how consumers are segmented, the house and the home, spending, and saving and Shopping. 1) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-briefing-consumer-lifestyle-in-singapore-top-five-consumer-trends-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15584">Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Top Five Consumer Trends) - Part 1</a>, 2) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-briefing-consumer-lifestyle-in-singapore-consumer-segmentation-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15692">Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Consumer Segmentation) - Part 2</a>3) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-briefing-consumer-lifestyle-in-singapore-house-and-home-part-3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15737">Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (House and Home) - Part 3</a> 4) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-briefing-consumer-lifestyle-in-singapore-spending-and-saving-part-4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15786">Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Spending and Saving) - Part 4</a> 5) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-briefing-consumer-lifestyle-in-singapore-shopping-part-5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15809">Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (SHOPPING) - Part 5</a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/discover-singapore-own-an-asian-luxury-marina-operator-at-4-8x-ex-cash-p-e-and-2-8-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15669">Discover Singapore: Own an Asian Luxury Marina Operator at 4.8x Ex-Cash P/E and 2.8% Dividend Yield</a>, our small-cap guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> takes a close look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8687" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8687:1">SUTL Enterprise Ltd (SUTL SP)</a> which is a play on the growth of Asian Ultra High Net Worth (UHNW) and their desire to own luxury yachts.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ilink-wired-to-ride-business-renewal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15691">ILINK: Wired to Ride Business Renewal</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15031" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15031:1">Interlink Communication Pcl (ILINK TB)</a> with a positive view on the company as it is a prime beneficiary of official Digital Economy support by the government.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-telcos-smaller-operators-poised-to-grow-faster-ex-java-at-expense-of-telkomsel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15609">Indonesia Telcos: Smaller Operators Poised to Grow Faster Ex Java at Expense of Telkomsel</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> note that the economics of smaller telecom firms expanding outside the main Java market has been changing with the rise of data revenues.  The ex Java market accounts for over 50% of the overall Indonesian telecom market and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1917" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1917">Chris Hoare</a> sees a big opportunity for the smaller players, especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15028" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> while it takes the sheen off TLKM's return profile.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-political-temperature-heats-up-in-the-road-to-2019-elections" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15754">Indonesia: Political Temperature Heats up in the Road to 2019 Elections</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that Setya Novato's fall from grace could hurt President Jokowi, who had been able to count on a friendly Setya casting his Golkar party’s support behind the President’s legislative programme as well as his re-election bid in 2019. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/when-actions-speak-louder-than-words-uol-and-uic-s-optimism-on-singapore-residential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15723">When Actions Speak Louder Than Words – UOL and UIC’s Optimism on Singapore Residential</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Foo Sze Ming</a> notes that Singapore construction company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17636" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1">Lian Beng Group Ltd (LBG SP)</a> recently announced that it was awarded a contract worth S$136.8 mil to construct a condominium development at Potong Pasir Avenue 1.This may seem like a normal award of a contract by a developer to a construction company, but he thinks that the timing of the contract award could be a sign of the developer’s optimism on the Singapore residential market.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sido-muncul-your-herbal-remedy-solution-that-pays-5-dividend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15664">Sido Muncul: Your Herbal Remedy Solution that Pays 5% Dividend</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in the uniquely Indonesian "Jamu" (traditional medicine) industry and specifically on major player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6033" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1">Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sd Mncl Tbk Pt (SIDO IJ</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6033" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1">Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sd Mncl Tbk Pt (SIDO IJ)</a> is one of the major players in the country with a proven track record in their flagship products; Tolak Angin and Kuku Bima. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/as-major-gubernatorial-contests-take-shape-no-signs-of-islamicization" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15735">As Major Gubernatorial Contests Take Shape, No Signs of ‘Islamicization’</a>, Indonesia political specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> notes that less than eight months from now, gubernatorial elections in Indonesia’s four largest provinces will involve more than half of the national electorate and will give us some indication of the way things will go in the 2019 elections. He does not expect a huge influence from Islamic forces.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ramayana-lestari-sentosa-the-goods-department-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15607">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa - The Goods Department</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a>   comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12266" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12266:1">Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ)</a> after a company visit. It continues to be a company in transformation mode. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winner-food-solution-champion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15760">WINNER: Food Solution Champion</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> focus their attention on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10943" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10943:1">Winner Group Enterprise Pcl (WINNER TB)</a> which is a major player in the HORECA industry in Thailand. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/selamat-sempurna-filtering-the-world-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15759">Selamat Sempurna - Filtering the World</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to filter and auto parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10909:1">Selamat Sempurna Pt (SMSM IJ)</a>. He sees the company as an underappreciated high-quality industrial player in Indonesia, with a leading market position in its space.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-c-live-die-re-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15819">Big C: Live, Die, Re-List?</a>, Thai specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> notes that the TCC Group of Thailand's second richest man ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-coons-episode-2-bottle-cap-boy-turned-beer-baron" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6285">Thai-Coons (Episode 2): Bottle Cap Boy Turned Beer Baron</a>) did a few TV interviews highlighting its plans to de-list Big C, restructure it, and then list it back again. He takes a look at BIG C's operations and finds a company on the cusp of a turnaround, which makes a re-listing a possibility. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/psa-wins-cosco-shipping-ports-loses-in-joint-partnership" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15803">PSA Wins, Cosco Shipping Ports Loses in Joint Partnership</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1646" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1646">Victor Wai, CFA</a> comments on Cosco Shipping Ports (CSP) announcement of a third berth with PSA Singapore at the Pasir Panjang Terminal. He believes shareholders of CSP have little to gain from the enhanced deal.

Please find below a brief summary if this week's Insights in ASEAN@Smartkarma. For more detail please scroll down to the detail section. In Singapore: Economy Roaring but Could Inflation Surprise? , Manu Bhaskaran notes that Singapore GDP expanded 5.2% y/y in 3Q17, from 2.9% growth in 2Q17. Notably, the manufacturing sector surged 18.4%, up from 8.4% registered in the previous quarter, driven by all clusters except transport engineering. In his Insight, Philippine Reforms: Some Progress, Along with Setbacks, Nicholas Chia comments on President Duterte's decision to uphold the ban on open-pit mining in the Philippines.In Bank Danamon: Takeover Redux, our own Pranav Rao zeros in on Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN IJ), which seems to be the perennial takeover target amongst the banks in Indonesia. In a classically framed insight, AMATA: Immortals of the Industrials, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a close look at industrial estate developer Amata Corp Public Co Ltd (AMATA TB)  post 9M results.In Tax Troubles Backfire for Thailand’s Big Tobacco, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the Thai tobacco industry and notes that Thailand is probably the second biggest tobacco market in ASEAN after Indonesia. In a five-part insight series, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. delve deep into consumer behavior in Singapore, highlighting the top five consumer trends, how consumers are segmented, the house and the home, spending, and saving and Shopping. 1) Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Top Five Consumer Trends) - Part 1, 2) Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Consumer Segmentation) - Part 23) Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (House and Home) - Part 3 4) Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (Spending and Saving) - Part 4 5) Sector Briefing: Consumer Lifestyle in Singapore (SHOPPING) - Part 5In Discover Singapore: Own an Asian Luxury Marina Operator at 4.8x Ex-Cash P/E and 2.8% Dividend Yield, our small-cap guru Nicolas Van Broekhoven takes a close look at SUTL Enterprise Ltd (SUTL SP) which is a play on the growth of Asian Ultra High Net Worth (UHNW) and their desire to own luxury yachts.  In ILINK: Wired to Ride Business Renewal our friends at Country Group initiate on Interlink Communication Pcl (ILINK TB) with a positive view on the company as it is a prime beneficiary of official Digital Economy support by the government.In Indonesia Telcos: Smaller Operators Poised to Grow Faster Ex Java at Expense of Telkomsel, our friends at New Street Research note that the economics of smaller telecom firms expanding outside the main Java market has been changing with the rise of data revenues.  The ex Java market accounts for over 50% of the overall Indonesian telecom market and Chris Hoare sees a big opportunity for the smaller players, especially XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) while it takes the sheen off TLKM's return profile.In Indonesia: Political Temperature Heats up in the Road to 2019 Elections,  Manu Bhaskaran notes that Setya Novato's fall from grace could hurt President Jokowi, who had been able to count on a friendly Setya casting his Golkar party’s support behind the President’s legislative programme as well as his re-election bid in 2019. In When Actions Speak Louder Than Words – UOL and UIC’s Optimism on Singapore Residential , Foo Sze Ming notes that Singapore construction company, Lian Beng Group Ltd (LBG SP) recently announced that it was awarded a contract worth S$136.8 mil to construct a condominium development at Potong Pasir Avenue 1.This may seem like a normal award of a contract by a developer to a construction company, but he thinks that the timing of the contract award could be a sign of the developer’s optimism on the Singapore residential market.In Sido Muncul: Your Herbal Remedy Solution that Pays 5% Dividend, Henry Soediarko zeros in the uniquely Indonesian "Jamu" (traditional medicine) industry and specifically on major player Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sd Mncl Tbk Pt (SIDO IJ.  Industri Jamu Dan Farmasi Sd Mncl Tbk Pt (SIDO IJ) is one of the major players in the country with a proven track record in their flagship products; Tolak Angin and Kuku Bima. In As Major Gubernatorial Contests Take Shape, No Signs of ‘Islamicization’, Indonesia political specialist Kevin O’Rourke notes that less than eight months from now, gubernatorial elections in Indonesia’s four largest provinces will involve more than half of the national electorate and will give us some indication of the way things will go in the 2019 elections. He does not expect a huge influence from Islamic forces.In Ramayana Lestari Sentosa - The Goods Department, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh   comments on Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt (RALS IJ) after a company visit. It continues to be a company in transformation mode. In WINNER: Food Solution Champion, our friends at Country Group focus their attention on Winner Group Enterprise Pcl (WINNER TB) which is a major player in the HORECA industry in Thailand. in Selamat Sempurna - Filtering the World, Angus Mackintosh circles back to filter and auto parts manufacturer Selamat Sempurna Pt (SMSM IJ). He sees the company as an underappreciated high-quality industrial player in Indonesia, with a leading market position in its space.In Big C: Live, Die, Re-List?, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes that the TCC Group of Thailand's second richest man ( Thai-Coons (Episode 2): Bottle Cap Boy Turned Beer Baron) did a few TV interviews highlighting its plans to de-list Big C, restructure it, and then list it back again. He takes a look at BIG C's operations and finds a company on the cusp of a turnaround, which makes a re-listing a possibility. In PSA Wins, Cosco Shipping Ports Loses in Joint Partnership, Victor Wai, CFA comments on Cosco Shipping Ports (CSP) announcement of a third berth with PSA Singapore at the Pasir Panjang Terminal. He believes shareholders of CSP have little to gain from the enhanced deal.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Industrials, Herbal Remedies, and Filters